Saturday, April 29, 2006

NSFG 2/2006

NSFG Returns in Chart

NSFG published that their April return will be at breakeven, that is zero. Unfortunately, they were not able to improve their monthly returns.
So the chart now is a little different comparing to the last one:

The trendline changed (calculated and plotted automatically by the spreadsheet software) in its nature. I pray for changing the trend to an increasing one in May.
For those who are interested in figures, the arithmetic average of monthly returns is 11.61% with a standard deviation of 10.22.

Never Ending Story 15/2006

After a long and awful silence we got great news from Tobor, a member of HYIPdiscussion Forum. Tobor made a phone interview with Gordon, admin of Global Mutual and NES.

I have always been sure that Gordon and his businesses are real and honest. Nevertheless, in most cases that is not enough, the business success needs more, such as management and business skills, strength, stamina and a bit of luck, just to name a few factors.

The essence of the report that Gordon is well and still has great plans for the future though he is ca. two weeks behind his original time schedule.
After DDoS and/or fraudulent spam attacks and trying out a not sufficient new host provider GM and NES are moving again to a new hosting in the hope of better service.
The most importantly to NES members, Gordon has found a new programmer in his city, so we have a chance to get a more stable and functionable NES soon. Naturally, the whole context of NES is important but probably the basics now are the hosting including the server and the script that might be resolved whithin the couple of days.

The whole text of the report can be found here: http://www.hyipdiscussion.com/186378-post2.html

Sunday, April 09, 2006

NSFG 1/2006

NSFG Returns in Chart

NSFG published their returns for March 2006. It is a little below the expected that is 3.06%.
Several people asked in forums about the past returns of NSFG, so I thought I put that into a Chart:

I put also a trendline into the chart to make it more informative.

Friday, March 24, 2006

MPDW 2/2006

MPDW Changes from Different Angle

On 15th March 2006, in a mid-week newsletter, MPDW Admin announced the membership about some strict measurements that were effective immidietly at that time.

These measurements were as follows:

# 1)
Each unit must now mature for 26 weeks. All units start at 0 weeks maturity today. This new feature applies only to sell-backs. You may still withdraw from your Returns Balance.

# 2)
We have raised the minimum purchase to 20 units. (This is for New Members Only)

# 3)
Minimum withdrawal of returns is now 3 units.

# 4)
There are no more emergency sell-backs.

The changes were under preparation for a while since the Admin asked similar questions from the members in a fair, democratic way, that is very rare in HYIP world. There is no statistics publicly known about the result of that questionnaire. Hypothetically, several members answered that they would agree with the higher minimum purchase and withdrawal but hardly anybody thinks that there would have been any member voting for the long maturity time.

For the sake of better understanding we should investigate the background and context as well as the impacts of these measurements.

Minimum purchase

Minimum purchase raised from 5 to 20 units, that is now 20 grams of gold equal to ca. $360 (for New Members Only) and there is an additional 5% admin fee, altogether that is about $380. The reason for that could be that MPDW would like to have more sophisticated investors in the future. The effect could be that the influx of new funds and investors decreasing, less administration needed and the communication with the sophisticated investors will be easier. I think it was a good step. Comparing to others, the minimum investment at Udachu is $1,000; at FXIG $5,000; at PSHI $2,500 but $100 at NSFG, FX-Experts and PIU.

Minimum withdrawal

Minimum withdrawal of returns is 3 units that is approx. $54 is could not be a big problem.

Maturating time

Maturating time is 26 weeks even for the old units – this is the big problem for most of the investors. This is the issue that only few investors can or intend to understand.

I think MPDW was the most disclosed program until NSFG turned up and the judgement of MPDW was unambiguously positive until a never member started to attack it maliciously and fraudulently in HYIPD forum. Naturally, some ever malicious people followed never member at once. Later the fraudulence of the accusations was proved undoubtedly and never member disappeared from HYIPD forum for a while but the wound that was caused by that attack has not healed completely when never member came back and trusting in that most people forgot his earlier fiasco, he continued his fraudulent accusations against MPDW. Needless to say that those ever malicious people backed by the accusation again and the fraudulent rumours and accusations started to escalate.

A week earlier MPDW Admin was under the weather and as a consequence the payouts were a bit slower than usual though they were far within the deadline. Several people attacked MPDW for this and when the Admin came back to work full time, never member and company started the new attack.

I tried to imagine myself into the position of MPDW Admin and feel the arrogant and fraudulent attacks repeatedly and see how these rumours and attacks are escalating.

I think the most important tasks for an Admin are to preserve the deposits of members and ensure the longevity of the program at a suitable level of return. If the repeated and escalating attacks threat the existence of a program, the Admin has to take suitable measures. It's a must for an honest admin while a scammer runs away in such a situation. MPDW Admin did his charge and took the measures without delay.

(Nevertheless, I think defending a program is also an obligation as well as an interest not only for the admin but also for the members at the same time. I saw several cases when the members defended the program or the admin. Why didn't and don't they do so in case of MPDW? It's a secret for me.)

There was no much time to consult with the members about the necessary and possible measures since the admin supposedly wanted to make the changes well before the next withdraw cut off date but he did not want to allow the principal withdrawal at that time. I think taking those strict restrictions against the members’ short term interest was a brave action, leaving the program to pull down by the fraudulent attackers and malicious fence sitters and complaining whilst the program dying would have been easier than that.

These strict measurements cause pain to several members. There are a new feature that helps members who want to go out to manage to do so. MPDW staff endevours to explain the reasons and the advantages of the changes to members.

I do not think these changes show ponzi signs:

  • the higher entry level does not appeal new funds that would absolut be necessary to a ponzi to survive,
  • the new possibility for members help members to ease the situation of members wanting to go,
  • leaving the cashout possibility for the returns,
  • the continuous communication with members

are certainly not ponzi signs.

Nevertheless, changing the TOS at the last minute or after the last minute was not a nice action. Time will tell whether the changes succeed the members' and the management's common object.

Sunday, March 05, 2006

Never Ending Story 14/2006

Fallback Recouped

There was a step back in NES earnings on 25 February 2006. Several people posted that their daily earnings decreased significantly. No announcement has published about that so far.
There were some speculations about the reason of that here but I do not know about official explanation. Well, communication, customer service still need improvement...
Nevertheless, from that point of time the daily earnings are growing again steadily in my NES account and they transfer the earnings every day to my Pecunix account.
Here is a chart showing my recent daily earnings:


The chart clearly shows that above mentioned drop. The fallback has just been recouped.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Never Ending Story 13/2006

I am in the Money

Today I reached the next milestone: My Account Balance is $100 and the program transferred the first instalment to my Pecunix account.

It is 101 days from the date of investment to today, but not including the end date.

The next exciting cycle starts form this point in time, that is to reach $100 on my Pecunix account. Now I am planning to start with another NES account when I accumulate $200 on Pecunix. Hopefully I can reach this point within 100 days.

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Never Ending Story 12/2006

Comparative Analysis


NES project is still in its initial phase since there are hardly any members "in their money". I think when people will see that others have steady every day's income and discover that NES is a kind of pension fund (just better) then probably more and more people will intend to join.

Earlier this week I was personally visited by a pension fund agent. She is selling special pension and insurance package of one of the biggest USA based insurance company (name from three letters starting with the first letter of ABC…- LOL). After the usual silly, long initial presentation finally she said that the most favourable program she can presently offer is to invest $1,200 every year for 20 years and the profit is ca. 5-6% yearly above the current inflation that is ca. 7-9 per annum gross and there is an insurance factor matched to their program. Program members there can first cashout after 10 years.

Comparing NES to that insurance program in figures, I think gives us more than a long verbal explanation:

Insurance program

Total invested during 20 years $

24,000


Total maturated $

476,651


Rate (total maturated/invested) ca.

20


Never Ending Stori


NES 0.10/d

NES 0.05/d

Total invested

100

100

Daily accrual $

0.10

0.05

Days needed to reach $100 per day

1,000

2,000

Sum earned during growing to 100 $

50,000

100,000

Sum earned during 20 years $

630,000

530,000

Total earned during 20 years $

680,000

630,000

Rate (total earned/invested)

6,800

6,300

The essence of the table: comparison of a high reputation insurance + investment program and NES, taking a 20 years long cycle time into consideration.

Assumptions and results: the insurance program needs $1,200 investments yearly, its return is 8% yearly. We can see that the total invested $24,000 grows up to $476,651 that is almost 20 times higher than the sum of initial investments. Nevertheless, this program gives an insurance for its members.

There are two columns for NES. In the first one we assumed that the daily accrual after breakeven (or in money) is $0.10 while the second contains figures assuming $0.05 daily accrual.

Starting the daily income from zero to reach $100 as daily income needs 1,000 days. During this period we will earn $50,000 – it’s a nice surprise, isn’t it? And we can start earning on the first day after in money…

20 years contain 7,300 days (approximately) we used 1,000 to reach $100 per day and if there is no accrual after that, we will earn $100 during 6,300 days. So totally we can earn $680,000 during the 20 years period that is 6,800 times higher than the initial investment of $100.

The second column gives a bit weaker return with $630,000 total income.


NES is typically a long term program which necessarily starts slow. It has many features causing to the slow start. We can take these factors into consideration and can suggest measurements to program administration and we can also take steps to improve the view of the program.

(1) Projected long time before the income really starts to inflow to your Pecunix (or other) account.

In the program description and other communication sources a 90 days terms come up several times. It is too long for a typical HYIP fan who is accustomed to the max. 30 days terms. The 90 days terms only mean that probably reach the break even and then there should be another long period till you will be in your money and you can really earn just after that. There is no any prediction for the time necessary to earn $100 or $500 a day.

I would like to remark here that Goldenrocks started its operation in the fourth quarter of 2004. They started dynamically grow in August - September 2005, that means 9-10 months after their start but Goldenrocks is a simple structured program (there were some changes in April 2005 or so but the structure was always simple)! It was just because people did not trust them so time and experience of others were needed to many people believe in it and they can imagine that they also can earn with that program.

NES probably need much longer time to reach success than Goldenrocks did because of the other reasons listed here.

(2) Complicated and not transparent rules, structure and functioning.

The program demonstrations, descriptions, analysis’ available from the “Editor” and from other sources (blogs, forums, etc.) cannot explain clearly how is the program functioning. Majority of people like clear, accountable rules and transparent structure. There is only a minority of people who prefers foggy, mystique structures and trusts blindly in the program administration.

(3) Low respect of Global Mutual.

There were sever changes in their other programs and there were late payments. Many people think of GM is a scam – well, fortunately they are wrong.

(4) Script glitches that were slowly repaired and badly communicated.

(5) Communication weaknesses.

There is a forum solely for NES but usually there is no answer to members questions or complaints.


Consequently, in this early phase of the program just the sophisticated and GM fan investors can imagine success with this program. I believe, with significant improvement in communication then more and more satisfied members as the program develops, it can be a very successful program of the coming years.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Autosurfers 1/2006

I would not like to repeat the well known things, facts and gossips about StormPay contra 12DailyPro and other autosurfers. I think the solution finding is much more interesting than the "never ending" debates about the same matter.

Well, there are only two autosurfers (from those ones where I am affected) which have found out the solution and taken some steps forward to resolve the situation.
First of all DadnDaves is that moved forward: David paid me via e-gold today though I upgraded via StormPay at his site and originally I requested that payment via StormPay accordingly!
Thank you David!

The second group is Colette&Dan from AutoSurf.biz and eProfitSurf. They have fusioned the two autosurfers, that is, if somebody had account at both sites then now he has only one with the summarized account balances. They finished this huge work of all the accounts upgraded at the two sites and intend to payout at the end of this week. In the meantime they set up their own processor which will conduct the money between their new site and e-gold, bank transfer or check. The new site will pay 1% per day and the debit never expires. The account balance is limited at maximum $10,000 so the available income is $3,000 monthly. Not too bad, I think.
Congrats you Colette&Dan!

Never Ending Story 11/2006

The story continues... The daily interest climbes up slowly but steadily. Today the difference between the daily interest and the daily subscription is greater than $2.00 and I am happy with that.